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Cappin’ the B1G: Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Purdue v Rutgers Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Ugh. Having Nebraska as the play of the week for this article (as well as having my own money on it) wasn’t very fun. I was restricted to refreshing updates on my phone as I was in attendance to watch Rutgers get their 4th win of the season over the Maryland Terrapins. Nebraska was in the red zone late in the 4th up 7 points and then Tanner Lee threw a pick, Northwestern went 90 yards to force OT, and Northwestern won by 7. Barf. Anyway, I’m back for more punishment this week so let’s dive into the action.

To recap Week 10’s picks:

  1. Nebraska PK (4 units) L
  2. Rutgers +3 (2 units) W
  3. Maryland/Rutgers UNDER 50 (2 units) L
  4. Illinois +14 (2 units) L
  5. Wisconsin/Indiana UNDER 49 (2 units) L
  6. Illinois/Purdue UNDER 47.5 (1 unit) W
  7. Northwestern/Nebraska OVER 52 (1 unit) W
  8. Penn State/Michigan State OVER 47.5 (1 unit) W

Season so far:

  • Overall Record: 85 - 70 -1
  • Wagered Games Record: 49 - 38 - 1
  • Season Units: +6

Still profitable for the season and entering the home stretch. Let’s finish strong.

Go ahead and follow me on Twitter @tjurk44 and I’ll throw out some non-Big Ten bets that I really like this weekend (I love Notre Dame -3 on Saturday) or just ask me an opinion on any game you’d like. On to the winners!

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions

  • Saturday November 11th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Penn State -31
  • Total: 52.5

Buckle your seatbelts fellow Scarlet Knights, it’s going to be a turbulent ride. Ugh. Penn State is fresh off another heartbreaking loss and conventional wisdom would leave you to believe that they will be demotivated in this one. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! I think Penn State is going to take out a lot of anger this Saturday and this game could get out of hand in a hurry. James Franklin would run the score up on his dying mother if he could so this spread looks about right to me. I’m actually going to pass altogether on picking this one and just watch the game hoping for a miracle of some sort.

  • Projected Score: Rutgers 10 – Penn State 41
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: NONE

Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Saturday November 11th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Ohio State -16
  • Total: 54.5

I gotta admit, when I saw the point spread for this game my eyes almost popped out of my head. I thought the line would be around 10 so there’s quite a bit of value to be had here in my opinion. Michigan State seems destined to do some serious Cinderella stuff this season and Ohio State looks to be reeling huge after suffering their second loss of the season. This is basically a play in game for the Big Ten Championship game as the winner of this game will probably win the East. Fun fact: The road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Michigan State is shaping up to be my play of the week.

  • Projected Score: Michigan State 23 – Ohio State 31
  • Spread Pick: Michigan State +16 (3 units)
  • Total Pick: NONE

Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Saturday November 11th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Indiana -9.5
  • Total: 49

If anyone is having issues with insomnia, I recommend taping this game and putting it on whenever you want to go to sleep later that night. I could not be any less interested in this game and I’m not even sure how the players for either team can get up for this one. Indiana doesn’t know who the QB will be and they are winless in the Big 10 thus far. Illinois is the bottom feeder with a coach who is just funding the boat he’s going to buy after he “retires” this offseason or the next. The line looks about right to me but how can you bet on a team that is winless in the conference, on the road, this deep into the season? Give me the Illini (gulp).

  • Projected Score: Indiana 26 – Illinois 21
  • Spread Pick: Illinois +9.5 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 49 (1 unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • Saturday November 11th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Point Spread: Minnesota -2.5
  • Total: 48

Both teams should be riled up for this one as they are both sitting at 4-5 and teetering on the edge of achieving bowl eligibility. This is essentially a must win for both teams as they both have tough schedules to end the year. Minnesota is back home after a tough road stretch against Iowa and Michigan and the Gophers will be led by their defense as their offense has been putrid thanks in part to the mess at QB. Nebraska is coming off of a game they had in the bag and then blew late and ultimately lost in overtime. Nebraska QB Tanner Lee has actually looked a lot better later in the season and he has some weapons on the outside to get the ball to. After Nebraska broke my heart last week I can’t bring myself to take them again so I’m going to stay away from this one. I like the under small.

  • Projected Score: Nebraska 21 – Minnesota 23
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: UNDER 48 (1 unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

  • Saturday November 11th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: ABC
  • Point Spread: Wisconsin -12.5
  • Total: 46

The Big Ten’s best hope of getting into the College Football Playoff this year lies with the Wisconsin Badgers. I don’t think anybody outside of the state of Wisconsin wants to see the Badgers in the College Football Playoff. I know I don’t. They have a 9-0 record but it has been against the cuppest of cakes and they’re going to moonwalk into the Big Ten Championship game that will be their audition to get into the Playoff. Iowa is in a prime letdown spot after demolishing Ohio State at home last week and they have no shot of getting into the conference title game. Their fate has basically been set as getting into a mid-tier bowl game but they might be extra motivated to play spoiler. It’s hard to know which team will cover this one but I do think it’s going to be a low scoring affair.

  • Projected Score: Iowa 13 – Wisconsin 27
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: UNDER 46 (2 units)

Michigan Wolverines at Maryland Terrapins

  • Saturday November 11th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Michigan -17
  • Total: 45

Michigan comes into this game looking like a brand-new team after Jim Harbaugh finally yanked human scarecrow John O’Korn and replaced him with QB Brandon Peters. Peters has been able to build his confidence up against Rutgers and Minnesota and now he gets to take on a Maryland defense that has allowed 62, 37, 38, 39, and 31 in their past 5 games under defensive minded HC DJ Durkin. The Terps are pretty much out of the bowl picture now given the schedule that they have remaining and they’re going to have major issues even getting the ball downfield in this game against the vaunted Michigan defense. I’m going to take the home dog small getting the boatload of points and hope the offensive weapons that the Terps have can break a couple long plays and make something happen. The over seems like a safer bet as Michigan might just get close to 50 by themselves if Peters keeps looking sharp.

  • Projected Score: Michigan 34 – Maryland 20
  • Spread Pick: Maryland +17 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: OVER 45 (2 units)

Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats

  • Saturday November 11th, 7 PM EST
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Point Spread: Northwestern -4.5
  • Total: 48.5

It seems like only yesterday everyone was talking about Purdue and their high-powered offense but it’s nothing but silence now as the Boilermakers have taken the elevator from the penthouse to the outhouse real quick. Northwestern is fresh off of THREE CONSECUTIVE overtime wins (first FBS team ever to accomplish this) and are somehow just a 4-point favorite against a Purdue team that is without their starting QB. Motivation might be a factor for Northwestern as they can’t win the division but I think Pat Fitzgerald will get them up for this one. Purdue just can’t do anything well on either side of the ball so I have to take the Wildcats here pretty big.

  • Projected Score: Purdue 17 – Northwestern 31
  • Spread Pick: Northwestern -4.5 (3 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 48 (1 unit)

Weekly recap in order of units wagered:

  1. Michigan State +16 (3 units)
  2. Northwestern -4.5 (3 units)
  3. Illinois +9.5 (2 units)
  4. Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 46 (2 units)
  5. Michigan/Maryland OVER 45 (2 units)
  6. Indiana/Illinois UNDER 49 (1 unit)
  7. Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER 48 (1 unit)
  8. Maryland +17 (1 unit)
  9. Purdue/Northwestern UNDER 48 (1 unit)


See ya’ll next week.