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Cappin’ the B1G: Week 13 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

NCAA Football: Michigan at Ohio State Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Alright boys and girls, last week we picked up some traction as we hit our 5-unit max play and picked up a total of 4 units on the week, going 5-3 in wagered games heading into the last week of the regular season. I’m showing a nice 8 unit profit on the season and I hope to end the regular season strong here to finish up a few more units to cap off a successful 2017.

To recap Week 12’s picks:

  1. Rutgers/Indiana UNDER 49.5 (5 units) W
  2. Rutgers +11 (2 units) L
  3. Michigan/Wisconsin UNDER 39 (2 units) W
  4. Penn State -26 (2 units) L
  5. Maryland/Michigan State OVER 43 (2 units) L
  6. Northwestern -7 (1 unit) W
  7. Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 41 (1 unit) W
  8. Illinois +41 (1 unit) W

Season so far:

  • Overall Record: 94 - 78 – 2 (54.6%)
  • Wagered Games Record: 59 - 45 – 2 (56.7%)
  • Season Units: +8

Go ahead and follow me on Twitter @tjurk44 and I’ll throw out some non-Big Ten bets that I really like this weekend or just ask me an opinion on any game you’d like. On to the winners!

Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

  • Saturday November 25th, 4 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Michigan State -14
  • Total: 40

Man, I really wanted this game to truly mean something. I wanted to experience that thrill at High Point Solutions Stadium of a bowl game bid being on the line for a 4 o’clock kickoff versus a ranked opponent. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights (aside from Ryan Anderson) didn’t even get off the plane in Bloomington last week. This doesn’t mean that all is lost for 2017 however, as the team has exceeded expectations (Las Vegas had our line at 3 wins) and can end the season on a very high note here if they can bag a win as a 14-point home dog. The Spartans should lack motivation in this one as they have nothing much to play for but they are too well coached to be caught sleepwalking in my opinion so Rutgers is going to have to play very well to have a chance in this one. The Rutgers offense has looked…offensive lately as they have been outscored 76-6 over the last two games and have only scored 14 points once in the last five games. That isn’t going to cut it against a very solid Michigan State defense that can focus all of their attention of stopping the run as Rutgers is completing way under 50% of their passes over the past three weeks. For Rutgers to win this game they have to play absolutely mistake free, find success on the ground, someone find a way to pass the ball downfield, and hope they get lucky and force a Michigan State mistake at some point. The line looks about right to me and I think the under is pretty safe here.

  • Projected Score: Michigan State 24 – Rutgers 10
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: UNDER 40 (2 units)

Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers

  • Friday November 24th, 4 PM EST
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Point Spread: Iowa -3.5
  • Total: 52

Mike Riley, we barely knew ye. After this game, Nebraska is going to be putting the full court press on to get Scott Frost or Mike Leach in Lincoln so this is Riley’s farewell game. Nebraska has looked downright dreadful on defense this year but they get to take on an Iowa team that seemingly peaked a few weeks ago when they upset Ohio State and have been reeling since. I kind of like Nebraska to get up for this one and send Riley out on a high note as the offense hasn’t looked that bad lately.

  • Projected Score: Iowa 24 – Nebraska 27
  • Spread Pick: Nebraska +3.5 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 52 (0 units)

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines

  • Saturday November 25th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Ohio State -12
  • Total: 50

This is it. The Game. The last time Michigan beat Ohio State, I was still attending Rutgers and killing brain cells with the old formula Four Loko’s (before they made it all legal or whatever). Michigan has done a good job of containing JT Barrett through the air but they need to stop him on the ground if they want to win this one. Brandon Peters looks very iffy to play in this one and he has to in order for Michigan to have a prayer here. I’m going to hold off on a prediction here just because of how important Peters is to the outcome of this game. Should be a fun one to watch regardless.

11:40 SATURDAY UPDATE: JOHN O’KORN STARTING BUCKEYES 5 UNIT MAX PLAY!

  • Projected Score: Ohio State 34 – Michigan 13
  • Spread Pick: Ohio State -12.5 (5 UNIT MAX PLAY)
  • Total Pick: NONE

Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers

  • Saturday November 25th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Point Spread: Purdue -3
  • Total: 51.5

Without doing much research, this has to be one of the biggest Old Bucket games in recent memory. The winner goes to a bowl game, the loser has to go back home to Bloomington or West Lafayette and deal with that place for an entire offseason. Puke. The Boilermakers have been very good on defense, allowing more than 17 points twice in the last seven games so I think the Indiana up-tempo attack will struggle mightily here. I think Purdue will get more fired up for this one than Indiana will and I like them to win here in a close one.

  • Projected Score: Indiana 24 – Purdue 28
  • Spread Pick: Purdue -3 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: OVER 51.5 (0 units)

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • Saturday November 25th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: ABC
  • Point Spread: Wisconsin -17
  • Total: 42.5

There is a lot on the line in this game for PJ Fleck as he can make his team bowl eligible and simultaneously eliminate Wisconsin (and the Big Ten) from the College Football Playoff. Wisconsin just needs to win this week and then against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and they will stroll into the Playoff. Fortunately for the Badgers, they shouldn’t have much to worry about here. Minnesota is incapable of moving the ball downfield via the pass which is the one area that you can expose Wisconsin. This is going to be an easy one for Wisconsin and I think they actually cover this spread pretty easily.

  • Projected Score: Wisconsin 35 – Minnesota 10
  • Spread Pick: Wisconsin -17 (3 units)
  • Total Pick: OVER 42.5 (1 unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins

  • Saturday November 25th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Penn State -22
  • Total: 58

Penn State might be out of the Playoff conversation but they can still solidify themselves into a New Year’s Six bowl game and keep the program heading in the right direction with a win against Maryland on Saturday. The Terps won’t be bowl eligible this year but they should be plenty fired up about playing against the Nittany Lions this week. I see Maryland keeping this one interesting for a while before Penn State eventually finds its offensive groove and gets into the high 30’s pretty easily like most of Maryland’s opponents have been able to do this season.

  • Projected Score: Penn State 41 – Maryland 17
  • Spread Pick: Penn State -22 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: NONE

Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Saturday Novmber 25th, 4 PM EST
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Point Spread: Northwestern -17
  • Total: 46

I’m pretty sure I’ve said this before during the 2017 season, but you would literally have to pay me money (we’re talking at least $100) to watch an Illinois game. Northwestern will pull into Champaign, Illinois on a nice six-game winning streak and should easily make is seven against an uninspired and directionless Illinois squad. I don’t see any possible way that Illinois can find a way to win this game outright. They can’t do anything good on offense as evidenced by the fact that they haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their last four games. Northwestern might need some time to get going but eventually it will pull away late and win but I think Illinois might do just enough here to cover this large spread at home.

  • Projected Score: Northwestern 27 – Illinois 13
  • Spread Pick: Illinois +17 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 46 (1 unit)

Weekly recap in order of units wagered:

  1. Ohio State -12.5 (5 UNIT MAX PLAY)
  2. Wisconsin -17 (3 units)
  3. Michigan State/Rutgers UNDER 46 (2 units)
  4. Nebraska +3.5 (2 units)
  5. Purdue -3 (1 unit)
  6. Wisconsin/Minnesota OVER 42.5 (1 unit)
  7. Penn State -22 (1 unit)
  8. Illinois +17 (1 unit)
  9. Northwestern/Illinois UNDER 46 (1 unit)

#ShootersShoot

See ya’ll for the conference championship game pick.