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Cappin’ the B1G: Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

NCAA Football: Purdue at Rutgers Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to another edition of Cappin the B1G with yours truly. I had my wisdom teeth taken out this week and I’m still a little loopy on the pain meds so I went with abbreviated game previews, please forgive me. Not the best week last week, getting a little unlucky with some games but that’s going to happen in the world of sports gambling and there’s nothing else to do but get back on the horse so lets begin!

To recap Week 9’s picks:

  1. Ohio State -6.5 (4 units) L
  2. Iowa -7.5 (3 units) L
  3. Rutgers/Michigan UNDER 44 (2 units) L
  4. Maryland +4.5 (2 units) W
  5. Michigan State -2.5 (1 unit) L
  6. Indiana/Maryland OVER 52 (1 unit) W
  7. Nebraska +5.5 (1 unit) W
  8. Nebraska/Purdue UNDER 51 (1 unit) W

Season so far:

  • Overall Record: 79 - 66 - 1
  • Wagered Games Record: 45 - 34 - 1
  • Season Units: +11

Go ahead and follow me on Twitter @tjurk44 and I’ll throw out some non-Big Ten bets that I really like this weekend (I love Clemson -7 on Saturday) or just ask me an opinion on any game you’d like. On to the winners!

Maryland Terrapins at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

  • Saturday November 4th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Maryland -3
  • Total: 50

Rutgers suffered a tough loss last week at Michigan but showed improvement from last season’s slaughtering at the hands of the Wolverines so that’s a step in the right direction. Maryland comes into this game 4-4 and has to leave Piscataway with a win if they want to make a bowl game since after this week they end the season with Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. I like the Rutgers defense to slow to Maryland’s weapons a bit here and think Rutgers comes through in a low scoring game.

  • Projected Score: Maryland 20 – Rutgers 21
  • Spread Pick: Rutgers +3 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 50 (2 units)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans

  • Saturday November 4th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Penn State -8.5
  • Total: 47.5

Penn State comes into this game sitting at 7-1 after suffering a big loss last week where they collapsed in Columbus, Ohio in heartbreaking fashion. Michigan State suffered a tough loss of their own in a triple overtime loss at Northwestern last week but Sparty is still alive to win the division. Penn State’s hopes and dreams of the playoff and Big Ten title are hanging in the balance and they need this one for any shot and it’s going to be a tough test against this scrappy Michigan State team. The line looks about right to me so I’m laying off but have some interest in the over here.

  • Projected Score: Penn State 31 – Michigan State 23
  • Spread Pick: Michigan State +8.5 (0 units)
  • Total Pick: OVER 47.5 (1 unit)

Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers

  • Saturday November 4th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: ABC
  • Point Spread: Wisconsin -12.5
  • Total: 49

After looking pretty good against Ohio State in the season opener, Indiana hasn’t done much since as they are 0-5 in conference play thus far and are in grave danger of missing a bowl as they sit at 3-5. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey is a nice dual threat for the Hoosier offense but it is unknown if he will play in this one. Indiana’s leading rusher Morgan Ellison is also doubtful for this game so there could be some big problems for the offense even with their stacked WR corps going up against the #1 ranked pass efficiency defense that the Badgers own. Wisconsin is also dealing with a slew of injuries including stud freshman RB Jonathan Taylor but I don’t think it will matter much who runs the ball for Wisconsin as they will control the line of scrimmage regardless. Tough to make a pick on this game with all of the injuries so I’m laying off a side but I do like the under a bit.

  • Projected Score: Wisconsin 27 – Indiana 14
  • Spread Pick: Wisconsin -12.5 (0 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 49 (2 units)

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers

  • Saturday November 4th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Purdue -14
  • Total: 47.5

Purdue blew a late lead against Nebraska last week to put themselves in the danger zone in terms of making a bowl this year so this is close to a must win situation for them as Illinois comes to town. The Boilermakers defense has looked very good the last few weeks but the offense has let them down, scoring just 9, 12, and 24 points in the past three games. Illinois has all but given up on their season thus far and it’s just a matter of time before Lovie Smith gets the heave-ho. I can see Illinois getting up for this one and making it competitive especially if Purdue comes out as flat as they have lately. Give me the Illini.

  • Projected Score: Illinois 17 – Purdue 24
  • Spread Pick: Illinois +14 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 47.5 (1 unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Saturday November 4th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: ESPN
  • Point Spread: Ohio State -18
  • Total: 52

Ohio State narrowly escaped with a home win last week against Penn State in a game that saw them outgain the Nittany Lions 529-283! If they can clean up on some of the sloppy mistakes they made last week, they will cruise right into the College Football Playoff yet again. The defense led by DC Greg Schiano is rolling in terms of the front seven but they have some vulnerability against the pass and Iowa must take advantage of that to have a shot here. Hawkeyes QB Nathan Stanley boasts a 17-4 TD to INT ratio but they just lack the explosiveness in the receiving game that will make this one competitive. Iowa RB Akrum Wadley is a stud but he will have his hands full against this Ohio State stop unit. This line and total look about right to me so I’m staying off of the game completely.

  • Projected Score: Ohio State 35 – Iowa 17
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: NONE

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers

  • Saturday November 4th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: PICK EM
  • Total: 52

Both of these teams are coming into this contest off of exciting wins and this should be an entertaining Big Ten West showdown. Nebraska hasn’t been able to run the ball much at all recently but QB Tanner Lee has finally started to show some promise as he threw for 431 yards and more importantly 0 interceptions last week which is good news against a Northwestern defense that has allowed the most passing TD’s in the Big Ten. Nebraska’s defense has been up and down thus far but had a good showing on the road against Purdue last week and they need to hold down an emerging Northwestern offense this week. I think this is a great spot to go against a Northwestern team that is coming off of back to back OT games and now has to travel on the road to take on a confident Nebraska team. Give me Nebraska big. Pick of the week!

  • Projected Score: Northwestern 24 – Nebraska 34
  • Spread Pick: Nebraska PK (4 units)
  • Total Pick: OVER 52 (1 unit)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines

  • Saturday November 4th, 7:30 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Michigan -15.5
  • Total: 40.5

Minnesota enters this contest sitting at 4-4 in PJ Fleck’s first year as head coach but they have a loaded schedule to end the year and it’s going to be difficult to get to the necessary 6 wins for a bowl game appearance. The strength of this Gopher’s team is in their defense but their offense has been offensive lately, picking up just 328, 290, 339, and 281 yards of total offense in their last four games. Now they enter the Big House to take on a Michigan defense that is one of the best in the country. Gulp. Michigan finally made a switch at QB where Brandon Peters looked good against Rutgers last week. The Wolverines might have finally found that spark they needed on offense but I need to see more before I can bet on it. Passing on this game completely.

  • Projected Score: Minnesota 13 – Michigan 28
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total pick: NONE

Weekly recap in order of units wagered:

  1. Nebraska PK (4 units)
  2. Rutgers +3 (2 units)
  3. Maryland/Rutgers UNDER 50 (2 units)
  4. Illinois +14 (2 units)
  5. Wisconsin/Indiana UNDER 49 (2 units)
  6. Illinois/Purdue UNDER 47.5 (1 unit)
  7. Northwestern/Nebraska OVER 52 (1 unit)
  8. Penn State/Michigan State OVER 47.5 (1 unit)

Shooters shoot. Thanks for reading and I’ll see you all again next week!