clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Cappin’ the B1G: Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

New, 5 comments
Ohio State v Rutgers Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images

Another so-so week for me as I went 4-4-1 and lost 2 units as we sputter towards the end of the season here. Hopefully I can catch fire over these last two weeks and finish out the year strong and post up a winning year.

To recap Week 11’s picks:

  1. Michigan State +16 (3 units) L
  2. Northwestern -4.5 (3 units) W
  3. Illinois +9.5 (2 units) L
  4. Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 46 (2 units) L
  5. Michigan/Maryland OVER 45 (2 units) PUSH
  6. Indiana/Illinois UNDER 49 (1 unit) W
  7. Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER 48 (1 unit) L
  8. Maryland +17 (1 unit) W
  9. Purdue/Northwestern UNDER 48 (1 unit) W

Season so far:

  • Overall Record: 89 - 74 - 2
  • Wagered Games Record: 54 - 42 - 2
  • Season Units: +4

Still profitable for the season and entering the home stretch. Let’s finish strong.

Go ahead and follow me on Twitter @tjurk44 and I’ll throw out some non-Big Ten bets that I really like this weekend or just ask me an opinion on any game you’d like. On to the winners!

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers

  • Saturday November 18th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Indiana -11
  • Total: 49.5

Well boys and girls, this is it. If Rutgers wants to make a bowl game in 2017, they need to find a win as a double-digit road underdog in Indiana. The Hoosiers are fighting for a postseason game as well as they sit with 4 wins and if they can get past Rutgers, they will take on a reeling Purdue team to get that coveted 6th win. In my opinion, this game will more or less be decided in the first quarter because if Indiana is able to get out to an early lead, Rutgers doesn’t have the aerial attack necessary to come from behind and win a football game. The Scarlet Knights have to come out of the gates fast if they want to have a shot at winning this game. I think Rutgers struggles in the passing game ultimately spell doom in this one and Indiana pulls away late but I do like getting 11 here. The bet that I really love since I’m seeing this is going to be a very windy game is UNDER 49.5. I’m actually going to make this a rare MAX PLAY.

  • Projected Score: Rutgers 14 – Indiana 21
  • Spread Pick: Rutgers +11 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 49.5 (5 UNIT MAX PLAY)

Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers

  • Saturday November 18th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Wisconsin -7.5
  • Total: 39

On a Saturday that is severely lacking marquee match-ups, this looks like one of the best games of the bunch. Wisconsin is sitting at 10-0 and has their sights firmly on making the College Football Playoff. This isn’t going to be an easy task against a Michigan team that sits at 8-2 but looks rejuvenated under the leadership of new starting QB Brandon Peters. This is definitely going to be a defensive battle between the two teams, hence the low total. Michigan is severely lacking weapons on offense so I have to give the edge to Wisconsin in this one. I think the Badgers win this game but the line looks about right to me. I’m more confident taking the under despite it being so low.

  • Projected Score: Michigan 13 – Wisconsin 21
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: UNDER 39 (2 units)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

  • Saturday November 18th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Northwestern -7
  • Total: 41

This Northwestern team has flown under the radar as of late but they shouldn’t go ignored much longer as they have won 5 straight games including wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota meanwhile needs one win in their next two games to become bowl eligible but seeing as they play Wisconsin next week, this is going to be their best shot. The Gophers have the scrappy Demry Croft at QB and he’s not very good at throwing the ball but he can make things happen with his legs so keep an eye out for that. Minnesota’s offensive strength is definitely in their running game but they will have issues against a Northwestern defensive front that has allowed over 100 yards rushing just twice over their last eight games, and one of those games was when they allowed 109 to Wisconsin on the ground. This is going to be a low scoring game and I like the home team to keep the hot streak alive by relying on their stout run defense, forcing the Gophers to make mistakes through the air.

  • Projected Score: Minnesota 14 – Northwestern 24
  • Spread Pick: Northwestern -7 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 41 (1 unit)

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Saturday November 18th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: ABC
  • Point Spread: Ohio State -41
  • Total: 53.5

Oh boy. ABC is going to have to mark this program “intended for mature audiences only” because this one is going to be violent. Ohio State looked like themselves again last week when they steamrolled Michigan State. Meanwhile, Illinois looks like a team just trying to limp their way to the finish line so they can pass out and wake up in 2018. This game is simply a young struggling team having to take their medicine against a perennial power. I’m not confident taking Ohio State here laying so many points so I’ll take the Illini small.

  • Projected Score: Illinois 10 – Ohio State 45
  • Spread Pick: Illinois +41 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: NONE

Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Saturday November 18th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Iowa -7.5
  • Total: 41

Purdue enters this game fighting for the chance to become bowl eligible with a win against the Hawkeyes as well as another win next week against Indiana. Iowa is already locked into postseason play, it’s just a matter of which bowl game they’ll get at this point. The Boilermakers have overachieved in Jeff Brohm’s first year, beating an Ohio team that looks like they might win the MAC, beating a good Missouri team, and getting two conference wins. The issue for Purdue these days is that they can’t do much of anything on offense anymore after looking great early in the season. Iowa has a solid defense that will shut down the stagnant Purude offense in this one. This one will be close throughout with Iowa pulling away late. I’m not confident enough to put any units on anything in this one. Looks perfectly lined.

  • Projected Score: Purdue 17 – Iowa 24
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: NONE

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions

  • Saturday November 18th, 4 PM EST
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Point Spread: Penn State -26
  • Total: 55.5

Penn State is 99.9% out of not only the College Football Playoff but the Big Ten Championship game as well as they would need Ohio State to lose to Illinois at home and then at Michigan to win the East. The Nittany Lions can get a nice New Year’s Six bowl game spot for the second year in a row by closing out strong versus two very beatable opponents. Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is going to keep or lose his job in the next two weeks as he will be able to stay in Lincoln if he can beat Penn State and Iowa to take this team bowling. If the Huskers get humiliated over the final two weeks though he is probably up a creek. After watching Nebraska get thrashed on the ground last week in Minnesota, Saquon Barkley has to be licking his chops over this matchup. Penn State is going to be able to name the score here.

  • Projected Score: Nebraska 10 – Penn State 41
  • Spread Pick: Penn State -26 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 55.5 (0 units)

Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans

  • Saturday November 18th, 4 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Michigan State -16
  • Total: 43

Michigan State, much like Penn State, is 99.9% out of contention of winning the Big Ten as they would need Ohio State to lose to Illinois to do so. The Spartans should still be proud of what they were able to accomplish this season after the nightmare that was 2016 and if they can win the final two games as well as the bowl game they can lock in a nice program building 10-win season. I’m giving Maryland a 5% chance of obtaining six wins for bowl eligibility as they have to win not only this game versus Sparty, but also against Penn State next week. The bottom line is Maryland was snake bit this season (again) by QB injuries but they still managed to go over their expected 3.5 wins. Michigan State isn’t going to lie down after getting embarrassed last week, they’re just too well coached for that. Look for Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke to put it together this week against a Maryland defense that is giving up points by the bucketful.

  • Projected Score: Maryland 14 – Michigan State 31
  • Spread Pick: NONE
  • Total Pick: OVER 43 (2 units)

Weekly recap in order of units wagered:

  1. Rutgers/Indiana UNDER 49.5 (5 units)
  2. Rutgers +11 (2 units)
  3. Michigan/Wisconsin UNDER 39 (2 units)
  4. Penn State -26 (2 units)
  5. Maryland/Michigan State OVER 43 (2 units)
  6. Northwestern -7 (1 unit)
  7. Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 41 (1 unit)
  8. Illinois +41 (1 unit)

#ShootersShoot

See ya’ll next week.