clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Cappin’ the B1G: Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Purdue v Rutgers Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

No big deal guys. Just 5-0 in wagered games, 10-2 overall and +6 units last week. That’s all. It’s safe to say I’m the best kept secret in college football handicapping this year (except for Week 1, we don’t talk about Week 1) and I’m thankful you’re all here reading this so we can keep this train moving. I’ve got some bigger unit plays this week that I can’t wait to share with you all so let’s just dive into the meat and potatoes here.

To recap Week 8’s picks:

  1. Wisconsin -24 (2 units) W
  2. Purdue/Rutgers UNDER 47.5 (1 unit) W
  3. Michigan State -6.5 (1 unit) W
  4. Illinois +14 (1 unit) W
  5. Penn State -9.5 (1 unit) W

Season so far:

  • Overall Record: 72 - 59 - 1
  • Wagered Games Record: 41 - 30 - 1
  • Season Units: +16

Go ahead and follow me on Twitter @tjurk44 and I’ll throw out some non-Big Ten bets that I really like this weekend (I’m on Boston College +3.5 pretty big on Friday night) or just ask me an opinion on any game you’d like. On to the winners!

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan Wolverines

  • Saturday October 28th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Michigan -24
  • Total: 44

TWO. IN. A. ROW! Wow. The Scarlet Knights are on a Big Ten winning streak! I’m starting to get excited about watching Rutgers games again but now comes the tall order of going into the Big House against a reeling Michigan Wolverines squad. Michigan trounced us in Piscataway last year 78-0 and you have to believe we will be fired up to extract at least some sort of revenge in this game. The Wolverines are reeling a bit after having their season goals flushed down the toilet and getting absolutely embarrassed by Penn State last week in Happy Valley. I think Rutgers comes out in this game and keeps it respectable which would be a big step up from how we usually look against the big boys. The number looks about right to me as I could see Michigan pulling away very late to win by more than 24 but I think a safe bet is taking under 44 here. I just don’t see how the Rutgers offense that I’ve watched this season can put up enough points on the road in this spot.

  • Projected Score: Rutgers 7 – Michigan 31
  • Spread Pick: Rutgers +24 (0 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 44 (2 units)

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Saturday October 28th, 12 PM EST
  • TV: ESPN
  • Point Spread: Wisconsin -27
  • Total: 49

The Badgers are a runaway freight train right now and seem to be a stone cold lock to represent the Big Ten West in the conference championship game at this point. They get a nice tune up this week when they get to take on a struggling Illinois team on the road in Champaign. Ex-Rutgers commit Jonathan Taylor is going to haunt my dreams almost as much as Saquon Barkley as he looks like an emerging national star at RB for the Badgers. Wisconsin is ranked 2nd in the nation in third down efficiency on offense and Illinois is allowing a 48% conversion rate on defensive third downs. Wisconsin also boasts the 6th ranked total defense in the country as well as the 5th ranked rushing defense in the country. This one is going to get ugly. The spread looks about right to me as I think the game could stay close in the first half before Wisconsin takes over and closes it out. Staying away from this one.

  • Projected Score: Wisconsin 38 – Illinois 13
  • Spread Pick: Illinois +27 (0 units)
  • Total Pick: OVER 49 (0 units)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Saturday October 28th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: FOX
  • Point Spread: Ohio State -6.5
  • Total: 57

Oh baby. Another week, another premier matchup between two top tier teams in Big Ten conference play. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than the Michigan/Penn State game last week with both Penn State and Ohio State coming into this game playing at a very high level. Penn State enters this game in a “must win” spot because if they lose to the Buckeyes, Ohio State will be in control of their own destiny to win the Big Ten East which would likely end Penn State’s playoff chances. Penn State looked like the real deal after they blew the doors off of Michigan’s #1 ranked defense and hung up 42 points on them last week. Ohio State comes into this game off of a bye week which could be a huge factor for them after Penn State had their emotional win. Urban Meyer will be looking for revenge after last year’s 24-21 loss in Happy Valley and it’s hard not to like the Buckeyes in this spot even though they’re laying 6.5 points. This will be the first time that Penn State’s defense will face a team that can actually move the ball downfield through the air so I’m taking the Buckeyes here in my pick of the week.

  • Projected Score: Penn State 21 – Ohio State 35
  • Spread Pick: Ohio State -6.5 (4 unit play)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 57 (0 units)

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats

  • Saturday October 28th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: ESPN
  • Point Spread: Michigan State -2.5
  • Total: 40.5

As someone who wagered on Michigan State at 24 to 1 to win the Big Ten this year, I’m pleasantly surprised by how well they’ve looked this season and they basically control their own destiny at this point. The Spartans must take it one game at a time though before they face their big tests and it’s no small to task to go on the road and take on a scrappy Northwestern team. The Wildcats are gaining some momentum after wins over Maryland and Iowa and they have their sights set on getting to the postseason. Michigan State’s defense has been absurdly good this season, shutting down Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota’s offenses and they held Notre Dame’s rushing offense to under 200 yards which may not sound that great but it really is compared to what Notre Dame has been able to do to other teams this season on the ground. Northwestern’s offense has been hampered by horrific line play and things won’t get much easier as they go against a defense that has allowed 102 yards or fewer on the ground in all four of their conference games. If Sparty’s defense can shut down the Northwestern offense enough early so that they can get LJ Scott and the ground game going on offense, I like the Spartans to leave here with a win.

  • Projected Score: Michigan State 21 – Northwestern 17
  • Spread Pick: Michigan State -2.5 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 40.5 (0 units)

Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins

  • Saturday October 28th, 3:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Indiana -4.5
  • Total: 52

Indiana comes into this game in College Park 3-4 with their losses coming against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State. No surprises there and they’ve played pretty competitively in a handful of those games so they are better than their record indicates. If the Hoosiers have any hopes of making a bowl, leaving College Park with a win on Saturday has to happen. Maryland is in basically the same situation as a loss here would basically eliminate them from postseason contention as they have Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State left to play this season. The Terps always seem to have offensive playmakers and they should shine a little brighter this week as they disappeared last week against the Wisconsin defense on the road. DJ Moore will need to make some big plays down the field for Maryland to have a shot here. I usually like taking the home dogs in conference games in these spots where I’m getting more than a field goal so go ahead and give me the Terps and the points.

  • Projected Score: Indiana 27 – Maryland 28
  • Spread Pick: Maryland +4.5 (2 units)
  • Total Pick: OVER 52 (1 unit)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Saturday October 28th, 6:30 PM EST
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Point Spread: Iowa -7.5
  • Total: 43

Both of these teams enter this game on the cusp of locking up a bowl bid although Minnesota has looked dreadful lately, struggling to get by Illinois last week at home and starting out 0-3 in conference play. Loser of this one is going to find it very difficult to lock up a bowl game this season. Minnesota has one of the most dreadful QB situations in the country (yes including us, Rutgers fans) as starting QB Demry Croft could only muster a 5 for 15, 47 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT stat line against a pretty lackluster Illinois secondary last week. Iowa’s defense is going to be jacked up for this one in front of the home crowd and I believe they will completely shut down the Minnesota passing attack here. Iowa hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass in their last two games and I see that continuing this week. Iowa is simply the better team, playing at home, against a Minnesota team that is struggling to move the ball through the air. Give me Iowa, they can have the points.

  • Projected Score: Minnesota 13 – Iowa 28
  • Spread Pick : Iowa -7.5 (3 units)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 43 (0 units)

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers

  • Saturday October 28th, 7:30 PM EST
  • TV: BTN
  • Point Spread: Purdue -5.5
  • Total: 51

I would seriously like to know if there are any Nebraska or Purdue fans that predicted at the beginning of the year that by the time this game came around, Purdue would be almost a full touchdown favorite over the Cornhuskers. I’m going to guess that you can count the amount of people on one hand but here we are in the wild world of college football. Mike Riley feels like a dead man walking at this point but he could still get his team to a bowl game if he can get a win at Purdue this week against Jeff Brohm’s squad that has already exceeded expectations in 2017. Purdue’s offense which looked incredible at the beginning of the season has fell flat recently in terms of putting points on the scoreboard. The Boilermakers scored 12 points against Rutgers, 9 points against Wisconsin, and 10 points against Michigan. Nebraska’s defense should continue that trend as they come off of a bye and face a Purdue offensive line that hasn’t been able to get much going for their ground game. I think the Huskers will look better than most expect in this game and this one will come down to the bitter end. Give me the points.

  • Projected Score: Nebraska 20 – Purdue 23
  • Spread Pick: Nebraska +5.5 (1 unit)
  • Total Pick: UNDER 51 (1 unit)

Weekly recap in order of units wagered:

  1. Ohio State -6.5 (4 units)
  2. Iowa -7.5 (3 units)
  3. Rutgers/Michigan UNDER 44 (2 units)
  4. Maryland +4.5 (2 units)
  5. Michigan State -2.5 (1 unit)
  6. Indiana/Maryland OVER 52 (1 unit)
  7. Nebraska +5.5 (1 unit)
  8. Nebraska/Purdue UNDER 51 (1 unit)

We’re swinging for the fences this week compared to the last couple of weeks. Good luck and I’ll see you all here again next week!