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Football Recruiting 2016: The final over/under

How good will Chris Ash's first class be? Better than anything Flood had? Or will the short time to recruit, plus a few other issues, impact it. A final look and a final chance to offer your two cents before the kids sign on the dotted line.

Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, we talked about Chris Ash's first recruiting class, and sought readers' opinions as to how good (or bad) the class would be.  It was particularly pointed in that Ash really only had a good month to recruit.  And by recruit, we mean:

  • review who had already been recruited
  • review who had already de-committed
  • get to know New Jersey high school coaches
  • develop relationships with kids who were still available
  • decide who should be pursued, even if they had committed elsewhere

No sweat.  Piece o' cake.

The bar had been set fairly low by the last staff.  Not counting the 2012 class that Flood and Pernetti held together, the best recruiting class that Flood ever had was 2013, when Rivals pegged it at 45 and 247 Sports put it at 50 nationally.  Most readers didn't think Ash would do much better considering the time frame with which he had to work.  And many were willing to bite the bullet on 2016. Here's a sampling of comments:

I give Ash

a complete pass this year unless something disastrous happens. New coaches, totally new philosophy and approach, new relationships. I’ll expect better in year 2 and hope to kick a$$ in year 3.

i'm not giving him a pass

BUT I’m not locking him based on this year. even on the job a short time, he’s done well getting in some new faces while others left. I still think we get another 3 or 4 guys to commit by NSD and that’s a tribute to the hard work the staff has put in over the last month.

Tebow stinks

Better than 50 is probably unrealistic.

I used the feature on 247 Service to see where Rutgers would end up if the prospects who are likely flip to Rutgers actually commit. I determined that it would take an unexpected commitment like Rashan Gary to jump Rutgers into the top 50. That being unlikely and given the chance that there may be more attrition, I think Ash will do very well if he gets this class into the low fifties.

And the poll at the end of that article?  As of this morning at 7:00 am, it looked like this:

It looks as if most people agreed with the comment by Franksport57 in saying better than a 50 ranking is going to be a stretch.  When only 28% think that a realistic finish is better than 45th, we're not looking at an optimistic wrap to recruiting.

But the voting took place over a week.  And since the post first went live, there were several new recruits added, most three stars.  In fact, as of this morning - one day before the fax machines start humming - the numbers looked like this:

Nationally Big Ten
247Sports 70 13
Rivals 79
Scout 67 13

The list included Tyreek Williams, QB Tylin Oden, and KJ Gray, among others.  It also included the de-commits, some of which may have been impacted by former RU staffers EJ Barthel going to Temple and Anthony Campanile going to Boston College.

On that list, the 247Sports ranking is down one from just yesterday. Rivals is down six nationally and two in conference, while the Scout rankings held steady.

So, the scouting services seem to agree with the readers; it ain't gonna be a banner year as far as the rankings go.  Of course, the real question is, did Ash get kids that fit what he wants to do?  Did he get the kids who fit his style and his vision?

In 24 hours, it all comes together.  So, one last time, the over/under.  Better than 50 or worse?

See you in the comments after you vote.