I'm an awful bracket picker.
There, I said it. I suck--SUCK--at choosing my brackets. I'm usually the guy tearing up my paperwork just minutes after the craziness of Thursday and Friday are over. I think I try to be too clever. But, in case you're curious on how I pick my brackets (before you pick yours at Yahoo's Wisdom of the Crowd League), here are some tips.
1. Number 1 Seeds Never Lose on the First Day: I don't care how confident you are in your seed that got hot and ran off 4 wins in a Conference Tournament after a sub-.500 regular season, they're not going to beat Kentucky. They just aren't. So don't pick 'em.
2. Watch Out for the 14 Seed: Here is where you're going to find your upset. This is usually a team that is a great three point shooting team. Someone is going to take them for granted and forget to defend the line, and the 14 seed is going to go off. Just make sure you pick the right one.
3. Which Teams Play Defense and Make Free Throws: You know what they say: Defense wins championships. You what else does? Teams who make their free throws. It's the reason I'm very wary of Syracuse this year. When your point guard shoots under 50% from the line, you're in big trouble. Factor that into your later round picks.
4. All Number 1 Seeds Don't Make the Final Four: Someone is going to slip up. And like I said, look for the one that doesn't defend well (how many shots can Anthony Davis really block?) or the one that doesn't hit their FTs (cough 'Cuse cough). But someone is going to lose to a 2 or 3 seed. It happens in the regular season, and it'll happen in the tournament too.
5. Let Your Someone Who Knows Nothing About the Game Pick: It's just as much a crapshoot. Whether they pick by the color of the uniform, the fact that the team is from North Carolina, or they have a cool mascot, it's going to be just as good as your analysis. In fact, it's probably better, because very little thought was put into it. So if you're in it to win money, this is the way to go.
That said--and I'm writing this before the teams are selected--my early pick for the National Championship match-up? UNC vs Michigan State.
But that all depends on the brackets.
Which I suck at.
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