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The Rutgers Effect, pt. 3

Counting our chickens before they hatch.

Where would the class of 2008 have went if they did not choose Rutgers?

QB D.C. Jefferson very publicly decommitted from RU to LSU, only to later reverse that decision.

Wary of bad-mouthing LSU, Jefferson cautiously said, "I was told some things and then they didn’t come true." Rutgers’ coaches, meanwhile, kept everything "straightforward," Lane said, and "didn’t sugarcoat anything." Offensive coordinator John McNulty’s calls always opened with queries of school and his family, Jefferson said, and the teenager said, "He really seems like he cares about me as a person and not just an athlete."

WR Marcus Cooper decommitted from Temple.

WR Keith Stroud also decommitted from Temple. He was being heavily pursued by Ole Miss at the time of Ed Orgeron's firing. It's unclear whether Coach O's legendary recruiting prowess could sway the Brooklyn native from staying home.

WR Tim Wright committed early enough that it's entirely unclear which of his plethora of Big East, ACC, and Big Ten offers he would have chosen.

TE/ATH Morgan Carter would have likely ended up at Michigan State or UConn if he did not choose Rutgers.

OT Art Forst's other finalist was Florida, leading Tennessee and Notre Dame.

OT Devon Watkis reportedly picked up an offer from the Maryland staff last fall.

DE Marquis Hamm was most prominently mentioning Iowa and Colorado, but with a qualifying test score, his future on the banks was never seriously in doubt.

DT Scott Vallone, a likely redshirt this fall due to a leg injury suffered during his senior season, reportedly had Maryland as his second choice.

LB Marvin Booker chose Rutgers over Temple.

LB Eric LeGrand was as close of a lock to Rutgers as you could find last year. He committed early, over offers from Maryland and Virginia.

CB Brandon Jones chose Rutgers over his other finalists Virginia and Iowa.

CB David Rowe was a plan B recruit for Miami last year. Otherwise, he might have ended up at Georgia Tech or USF.

S Wayne Warren was reportedly contemplating an offer from Delaware to stay home and play quarterback. He initially chose Rutgers over Syracuse and Stanford, but flirted with UConn's offer of a QB slot late in the recruiting process.

S Khaseem Greene chose Rutgers over UConn.

This analysis does not include Kevin Eagan (UConn), Rashad White (probably Maryland), or Malcolm Johnson (no grades, would have been a big recruit otherwise, maybe Miami). While Johnson is the cousin of Timmy Brown, I believe that White is the only one of the three with a potential future with Rutgers. Nor does this analysis include players without concrete offers from other programs.

It is not a comprehensive analysis of the entiredy of interest each player received. Rather, it is an attempt to counterfactually guess which schools were directly harmed by Rutgers on the recruiting trail last year. Rutgers had an indirect effect on many schools too. For instance, if Art Forst goes to Florida, they might not poach Matt Patchan from Miami.

Looking at the class of 2009, so far there have been several interesting repercussions from our victories. Tom Savage's other finalist was Georgia. They rebounded nicely with all-everything star Aaron Murray, who had been expected to land at Florida. Now the Gators are still scrambling for a QB, missing out on the likes of Josh Nunes, and possibly turning their attentions towards Morgan Newton of Indiana. If Urban gets his man, then Rutgers, assuming no funny business, will likely have directly impacted a Big Ten school that might have otherwise landed Newton. I am not going to analyze the class of 2009 any time soon, but Rutgers has beaten Pittsburgh directly on several recruits (Paul Carrezola, Jordan Hill, Duron Harmon, Aaron Hayward), Maryland (Abdul Smith, Robert Joseph, Andre Civil), Penn State (Gerald Hodges, Jamal Wilson), Virginia (Logan Ryan), WVU (Shawney Kersey), and Illinois (Michael Larrow) so far, with possibly four more verbals to go. We're not winning every battle of course, but we are making a considerable dent.