The Big East meeting of the damned
by On the Banks on Sep 21, 2011 6:35 AM EDT
in Big East Conference
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PrintBig East commissioner John Marinatto is claiming that everything is hunky dory in Big East land, even though that is clearly a lie, with UConn still hellbent on bolting the conference. Rutgers and West Virginia are not saying anything publicly, but they can't exactly be happy after spending months trying to ouster Marinatto. Now, with leverage fading (the Pac-12's wariness of the Longhorn Network scuttling, again, the giant domino scenarios), could the regime of Marinatto and his confederates be more emboldened than ever to exert total control?
Staying in a hybrid league is not going to work. UCF and Houston are arguably viable candidates, but ECU is sketchy, and Memphis holds little appeal on the football end, which should be driving expansion. Once again the league's divided loyalties are blinding it to the best possible options. UCF is a on the table despite its overlap with existing member USF, but Temple isn't even going to be considered thanks to the presence of Villanova. The football/hoops double standard still exists clear as day, which only underscores why the football schools need to put the kibosh on this arrangement. This supposed grand compromise is rotten, and with UConn exposing Marinatto as a fraud almost immediately, we now all sit waiting for the worm to turn once again.
If the Big East football programs can split, thereby jettisoning Marinatto (hey, Oklahoma made firing Beebe a condition of saving the Big XII) and the non-football schools, they still end up ahead. They lost Pitt and Syracuse, but both are at least replaceable in football, and losing the eight non-football schools is a huge net positive on the whole. Plus, there's still the whole Versus card to play in a year. If they stick together however, it's a lose-lose proposition for all - the Big East is still unstable, ripe for another round of chaos at the whims of more powerful actors, and always will be when they still think federated members is a remotely realistic option (well, at least we saw more insight yesterday as to why Bob Mulcahy was inexplicably obsessed with scheduling the service academies.)
Update: missed this USA Today report from overnight. Marinatto wasn't just fibbing, there was little truth at all to his statement of unity. Everyone is still looking for the exit.
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Why is ECU sketchy?
The week in and week out sell out their stadium and have a better fan base than most of the teams in the Big East. They have good facilities, and would be a middle of the pack BE team with a top of the line fan base.
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by seton hall and steelers on Sep 21, 2011 7:01 AM EDT reply actions
Sketchy for many reasons.
Academically ECU is a joke (OTOH, so is Seton Hall). The football team is often frisky when it plays the big boys, but I can’t remember ever seeing their hoops team in the tournament. It doesn’t bring a major media market with it. Adding it reduces Big East football to Ohio Valley Conference status, i.e., kiss BCS goodbye.
Put it this way. If the Big East Commissioner had held a press conference a few weeks ago and announced, “Great news, everyone! We’ve evicted Pittsburgh from the conference and replaced it with East Carolina!”, he would either have been lynched or committed to an insane asylum.
by madisonmetsfan on Sep 21, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
tv eyeballs
how many can ecu bring and how many more can they potentially bring? 1) even with a rabid and loyal fanbase they dont bring that many viewers. 2) everyone who is going to watch games is probably already watching.
thats the only reason anyone is talking about rutgers. whether they sell out or not is trvial compared to the fact that they could could potentially bring millions of NEW viewers to a game.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
RU holds the record
The 2006 RU-Louisville game still holds the record for viewership on an ESPN thursday night game. That is the potential you seem to be missing
wait, what am i missing?
the the potential i’m talking about. unless you think i’m not giving enough credit to louisville’s contribution to the that game.
regarding potential: how many more viewers can l’ville add? it is a regional school. most of the tiny metro’s population that WILL watch is ALREADY watching. only a fraction of who CAN watch rutgers is watching now.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
Get Out
Rutgers needs to get out as fast as it can before the expansion frenzy cools once again. We missed an opportunity last year when the B1G didn’t send an invite once the expansion frenzy cooled. It’s great RU has been talking to both the B1G and the ACC. But we need to pick our best (most readily available option) and jump ship. Not only does this conference no longer offer financial benefit (particularly now that its lost two of its flagship members and likely a huge TV deal to boot), but adding mediocre teams won’t make this conference stable again. RU needs money and stability. The Big East adds neither of those. If we aren’t actively leaving now, we need to do it soon.
Only a matter of time until the Big East Implodes
I trust Pernett’s and the administration’s judgement to make the best of this situation, but I can’t see any situation that makes staying in a reconfigured Big East better than being part of either the ACC or Big Ten.
The Big East is a dead conference walking. Whether it’s 5 weeks from now, 5 months from now or 5 years from now – the Big East is going to lose more members to another conference and consistently be the least valuable conference in terms of television revenue.
Bottom line, if Rutgers stays in the Big East it’s not by their choice. It meant the ACC / Big Ten decides to never pull the trigger and bring Rutgers in. Have to imagine that RU is doing everything possible to run as fast as they can from this train wreck of a conference.
If I'm the Big East football six + TCU...
…I do everything within my power to latch onto the revitalized Big 12, which will likely add Brigham Young as member #10. It’s probably a better harbor for Rutgers than the ACC (at least where football is concerned), and would be a true superconference. (One question: Would Connecticut go to a conference that has a deal in place with Fox Sports, rather than home-state ESPN? You know Bristol would pressure the folks in Storrs not to leave.)
As long as Texas and Oklahoma are in the fold, Big XII has no interest in the Big East
Not to mention that the idea of a merger between the two conferences already fell apart because schools, like Rutgers, were not interested in consistent cross country travel for Olympic sports in a league with no stability.
As a Big 10...
…fan (MSU specifically), I don’t think we’re going to expand further any time soon. The only school that would make a big splash would be Notre Dame and I don’t think they’ll join a conference until they’re forced to. The argument for adding Rutgers would be to get additional cable revenue in NYC, but I don’t see how it’s going to raise enough extra money to offset the pie now having to be split 13 ways rather than 12. Plus, content providers are going to increasingly have the option of cutting out the cable company middle man, so it’s probably not wise to make a long-term decision on a short-term factor like that. That’s my opinion of what’s likely, which happens to match up with my personal preference, so that that for whatever it’s worth.
I wasn’t in favor of adding Nebraska and I’m not in favor of going further, but if we do I’d personally look at Rutgers at the least-disliked option. I root for you guys in the Big East because my mom’s a Jersey transplant. And Greg Schiano of course endeared himself by looking down his nose at a certain universities’ job offer a few years ago.
Outside of Notre Dame, any Big Ten Expansion is likely by necessity, not choice
So long as the conference landscape allows the Big Ten to expand on their own timeline, Rutgers (or any other school, except ND) is never going to get an invite.
The only way Rutgers gets an invite to the Big Ten is if the Big Ten’s hand is forced. In other words, if all the ‘down the line’ potential expansion locations are being taken out of play by other conferences (e.g., Pitt and Syracuse), then the Big Ten will be forced to expand before it ideally wanted to in order to avoid missing expansion entirely.
So long as the Big XII stays in tact and the Pac-12 stays at 12, the Big Ten has no reason to expand. The only thing that could possibly work in Rutgers favor at this point is if the Big Ten truly covets a permanent East coast presence, Rutgers is the last option available. If the Big Ten feels the ACC is going to grab Rutgers, maybe they proactively make the first move (Rutgers will say yes to whoever asks first).
For Rutgers to get into the Big Ten at this point, there needs to be outside leverage that will force the hands of the Big Ten. With seismic changes being put on hold for now, that leverage is non existent.
I'm not...
…convinced that outside leverage exists. The Big 10 presidents might want to keep their options open for expanding into the east, but the Big 10 is currently a stronger organization than the ACC and Big East. If our leaders think we’re going to remain so, they can poach Pitt from the ACC in 2020 almost as easily as they could have poached them from the Big East in 2010.
Even if the PAC 12 pulls the trigger tommorrow and goes to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma forming the plains division or whatever, I’m sure the Big 10 would follow. Texas and OU are the only two schools out there that are of that status. I’m not sure it makes us more attractive for national TV to add schools. Each school you add has to bring the prospect of raising enough revenue so the current ones don’t have to take a pay cut by cutting things 14 ways or 16 ways versus 12. Nebraska cleared that bar easily because it allowed us to stage a championship game.
Even though we started the expansion merry-go-round, I see the Big 10 leaders as fairly conservative and perfectly happy where we are.
by witless chum on Sep 21, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
its not the cable companys that are important
its the content. by adding RU (and possibly CT) a conference raises the value of the content it controls, which it will then presumably monetize as efficiently as possible. right now thats a cable deal with espn or vs or whatever, but maybe later is a ppv internet channel.
nebraska was a way to a championship game and more money. ND is more money because its a huge national brand and can grow the pie. RU and UConn may not grow the pie right now but its their potential to add the richest market in the world that puts them in play.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
The Big Ten would prefer a Rutgers/Maryland combo...
…for reach into the eastern seaboard from NYC to DC. Also, both are AAU members; Connecticut isn’t.
One thing that might sway expansion in that direction — if Fox decides to bid for first-tier Big Ten rights in 2014-15, Delany might want a better presence in the east, especially in an uncertain Penn State post-Paterno environment. Rutgers and Maryland are good insurance policies towards that end, and both would boost the Big Ten Network’s cable subscriptions along the seaboard.
Not good for Rutgers right now!
The PAC 12’s non expansion announcement has cooled the whole domino game. SEC will get Texas A&M and someone. else Then it will all end for a while.
ACC won’t do anymore. They don’t have to. The TV contract will be increased/amended when the 13 and 14 team show up.
Looks like the Big Ten doesn’t want to share their own TV network with anybody new. I wonder if they have the expansion clause included in their outside TV contact as did the ACC? In any event, they do not want to expand.
Rutgers is screwed!
How to get out of the Big East?
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