Rutgers has a 20% chance of earning a BCS bid
Just for fun I calculated those odds myself using the moneylines on oddshark and rough odds conversion ratios. I also estimated WVU's odds at winning @USF to be about the same as them winning home against Pitt since the USF game odds aren't available yet. I got to 20% by assuming that WVU must lose ONE of their last TWO games (each has a 30% chance of happening so there is an apox 50% at least one happens) and that RU must beat UConn (60% chance) and LVille must lose to USF (60% chance). There's also a 10% chance RU gets it's BCS bid by this Saturday afternoon.
By all means check my math or suggest alternative values or assumptions. None of it means anything for certain, of course. I just figured I'd while some work time away before Thanksgiving.
Happy holidays everyone!
(also link just goes to oddshark.com, fyi)
6 months ago
kendynamo
4 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Louisville doesn’t have to lose. A lot is riding on the WVU/Pitt game. If Pitt wins that, than it is likely Pitt, Louisville, and Rutgers end in a three-way tie for first, or in a four-way tie with Cincy. If that happens Rutgers is likely to get the bid, as far as I can tell.
but if Lousville wins out, dont they get the BCS bid over Rutgers
on account of winning the head to head match up? likewise RU gets the nod over Cincy and Pitt for the same reasons?
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
Yeah except the tie wouldn’t be between just two teams, its multiple teams, which Rutgers only lost to L-Ville out of the group, giving them the best H2H record among the multiple teams.
Season Ticket Holder - Supporters Section of the Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Eagles Season Ticket Holder
Rutgers University Meteorology Undergrad
www.eagles101.com
Correct, but that scenario got a lot less likely after yesterday. Now Rutgers’ only chance at the BCS bid is ending in a three-way tie with Louisville and Cincy. Rutgers would have the H2H against Cincy, Cincy would have the H2H against Louisville, and Louisville would have the H2H against Rutgers, so it would be a wash.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
